Very good article, I am almost tempted to utilize it's points about the unity of the ruling elite and security forces to describe the current situation in Iran and how it hasn't yet been able to fracture the ruling elites' cohesion (not just political but also the economic).
Really excellent piece and it resonates very strongly with many cases I know far better, from Africa and the Middle East to Southeast Asia. Please keep posting your analysis. We need good Russianists to speak out and share their insights now more than ever.
"Mass street protests may be high-minded, but they are not altruistic. Those who call on Russians to rise up against Putin demand they do so out of empathy with Ukrainians’ suffering or indignation at an illegal war being waged in their name. "
This is simply wrong. They should do it for themself. Putin sends them to Ukraine where they get killed. There economy is crashing. Russia lost its energy market in Europe. Things go from bad to worse, things will probably be terrible soon. All there life is crashing. But they are incapable to fight for there and their children life/economic future.
They are only cappable to submit and die in Ukraine.
"based on comparative studies like Chenoweth’s: it was non-violent, it was inclusive, it had inspiring and empowered leaders, and it had a well-articulated, constructive political program besides just toppling a hated president."
This is not true. It was violent because Lukashenko used force to fight them. They had an idiotic idea that they cannot answer to force by force. Now they are tortured to death in jails. They were cowards, now they die.
Time for talking ended long time ago (like 2011) now is time for action. The sooner you start to fight with Putin regime the less of you will die.
So part of the contention is that wearing a hijab and covid restrictions are deeply personal, but having your loves ones sent to die or kill isn’t, so self-preservation doesn’t kick in. Literally 600 mobiks just died and there has been zero from their relatives other than “they died heroically”.
Wow, so many misinformed or plainly illogical statements in this article... Author clearly doesn't know the Soviet and Russian people enough. Having journeyed around talking with select social group doesn't give you unbiased knowledge. Lying is part of the Russian culture - they have many "levels" of lie (similar to white/blue/black lie) but with specific word for each of it - and they accept it as normal and required for survival.
Russians are brave and violent. They are not afraid to revolt - they just don't see what will change after revolting, because even their opposition politicians are the same - Navalny is imperialistic and xenophobic too. The author makes obvious mistake by "forgetting" the Bolshevik revolution - it is russian and it is because of foreign policy failure.
Westerners fail to understand these things because they seem absurd to them, but this is the reality. And this is why for the regular Russian the west is "dumb".
You said a lot about what the West shouldn't do or expect in relation to the Russians. So do you have any positive proposals, ones which would be realistic? Bear in mind that expecting Ukrainians, and other RU neighbors with history of being oppressed to be a bigger man and NOT hate Russia and the Russians means also placing the moral bar rather high.
At the moment isolating and destroying Russia economically seems to be the direction taken by the West and it will work by containing the problem for us. It can work long term, reducing the problem to non-existential nuisance, like in case on DPRK. At this point I fail to see a better course of action, can you propose one?
The question "what's wrong with Russians" was caused by Russian war crimes, genocidal rhetorics and despicable behavior on occupied territories. An answer to that question should explain their lack of resistance as well. I think we need to treat those phenomena as one.
I'm pleased with your conclusion of our choice of objective support for Russians and rejection of falling into prejudicial falsehoods. We should pity those Russians who will die, or suffer the consequences of this war whether at the front or elsewhere, and certainly maintain our ire for those responsible- Russias leading clique. However I'm not so convinced that there aren't competing power blocks within the Russian state, with the potential to fragment with the glue of Putins personal power diminished.
The Russian state (including its Soviet predecessor) always contained two large competing power blocs- the Army and FSB (and forbears). It appears in the Western media that to these traditional political rivals we can add the newly emergent Prigozhin. Who knows, there may be others?
Slavoslav comment refers to the toll of the war on Russian society, and in my wildest fantasies I can see a General Staff, or more likely the strata below of senior army figures, facing a disgruntled army and having to chose to be with the rank and file, or be with the regime. While on the face of it the Russian army isn't the most progressive institution, there is potential for some positive change based on discontent in it's lowest ranks and increased if the protest movement are seen as allies. Those Russian conscripts (and professional contract soldiers for that matter) are also drawn from some of the most disadvantaged sections of Russian society.
My point is that this situation fulfils your two missing criteria- political fragmentation and the potential switch of security service allegiance.
Adding to the examples in the original post, in January 1994 Kravchuk wanted to call off the presidential elections he would lose, but the heads of the Ukrainian police and security forces refused to support a self-coup. Not because they were democrats but because they had no reason to save Kravchuk and their men had not been paid in months and could not be relied on to obey orders. (Source: Pluralism by Default: Weak Autocrats and the Rise of Competitive Politics by Lucan Way)
Weak, disunited and poor state -> democracy of a sorts. Russia is stronger and resouce-rich.
So very thoughtful from so much experience. This resonates closely with what I've seen in 50 years of anti-war, anti-imperialist organizing in the US.
Perfect article. Logical, concise, and perfectly shaped.
Thank you very much! Now is the time when we badly need this kind of analysis.
Very good article, I am almost tempted to utilize it's points about the unity of the ruling elite and security forces to describe the current situation in Iran and how it hasn't yet been able to fracture the ruling elites' cohesion (not just political but also the economic).
Really excellent piece and it resonates very strongly with many cases I know far better, from Africa and the Middle East to Southeast Asia. Please keep posting your analysis. We need good Russianists to speak out and share their insights now more than ever.
"Mass street protests may be high-minded, but they are not altruistic. Those who call on Russians to rise up against Putin demand they do so out of empathy with Ukrainians’ suffering or indignation at an illegal war being waged in their name. "
This is simply wrong. They should do it for themself. Putin sends them to Ukraine where they get killed. There economy is crashing. Russia lost its energy market in Europe. Things go from bad to worse, things will probably be terrible soon. All there life is crashing. But they are incapable to fight for there and their children life/economic future.
They are only cappable to submit and die in Ukraine.
"based on comparative studies like Chenoweth’s: it was non-violent, it was inclusive, it had inspiring and empowered leaders, and it had a well-articulated, constructive political program besides just toppling a hated president."
This is not true. It was violent because Lukashenko used force to fight them. They had an idiotic idea that they cannot answer to force by force. Now they are tortured to death in jails. They were cowards, now they die.
Time for talking ended long time ago (like 2011) now is time for action. The sooner you start to fight with Putin regime the less of you will die.
So part of the contention is that wearing a hijab and covid restrictions are deeply personal, but having your loves ones sent to die or kill isn’t, so self-preservation doesn’t kick in. Literally 600 mobiks just died and there has been zero from their relatives other than “they died heroically”.
Wow, so many misinformed or plainly illogical statements in this article... Author clearly doesn't know the Soviet and Russian people enough. Having journeyed around talking with select social group doesn't give you unbiased knowledge. Lying is part of the Russian culture - they have many "levels" of lie (similar to white/blue/black lie) but with specific word for each of it - and they accept it as normal and required for survival.
Russians are brave and violent. They are not afraid to revolt - they just don't see what will change after revolting, because even their opposition politicians are the same - Navalny is imperialistic and xenophobic too. The author makes obvious mistake by "forgetting" the Bolshevik revolution - it is russian and it is because of foreign policy failure.
Westerners fail to understand these things because they seem absurd to them, but this is the reality. And this is why for the regular Russian the west is "dumb".
Cockroaches don't protest, therefore Russians don't
You said a lot about what the West shouldn't do or expect in relation to the Russians. So do you have any positive proposals, ones which would be realistic? Bear in mind that expecting Ukrainians, and other RU neighbors with history of being oppressed to be a bigger man and NOT hate Russia and the Russians means also placing the moral bar rather high.
At the moment isolating and destroying Russia economically seems to be the direction taken by the West and it will work by containing the problem for us. It can work long term, reducing the problem to non-existential nuisance, like in case on DPRK. At this point I fail to see a better course of action, can you propose one?
The question "what's wrong with Russians" was caused by Russian war crimes, genocidal rhetorics and despicable behavior on occupied territories. An answer to that question should explain their lack of resistance as well. I think we need to treat those phenomena as one.
It's so difficult for you! The truth is always easier!
I'm pleased with your conclusion of our choice of objective support for Russians and rejection of falling into prejudicial falsehoods. We should pity those Russians who will die, or suffer the consequences of this war whether at the front or elsewhere, and certainly maintain our ire for those responsible- Russias leading clique. However I'm not so convinced that there aren't competing power blocks within the Russian state, with the potential to fragment with the glue of Putins personal power diminished.
The Russian state (including its Soviet predecessor) always contained two large competing power blocs- the Army and FSB (and forbears). It appears in the Western media that to these traditional political rivals we can add the newly emergent Prigozhin. Who knows, there may be others?
Slavoslav comment refers to the toll of the war on Russian society, and in my wildest fantasies I can see a General Staff, or more likely the strata below of senior army figures, facing a disgruntled army and having to chose to be with the rank and file, or be with the regime. While on the face of it the Russian army isn't the most progressive institution, there is potential for some positive change based on discontent in it's lowest ranks and increased if the protest movement are seen as allies. Those Russian conscripts (and professional contract soldiers for that matter) are also drawn from some of the most disadvantaged sections of Russian society.
My point is that this situation fulfils your two missing criteria- political fragmentation and the potential switch of security service allegiance.
Adding to the examples in the original post, in January 1994 Kravchuk wanted to call off the presidential elections he would lose, but the heads of the Ukrainian police and security forces refused to support a self-coup. Not because they were democrats but because they had no reason to save Kravchuk and their men had not been paid in months and could not be relied on to obey orders. (Source: Pluralism by Default: Weak Autocrats and the Rise of Competitive Politics by Lucan Way)
Weak, disunited and poor state -> democracy of a sorts. Russia is stronger and resouce-rich.
Russians are not being dehumanized any worse than anyone else. Don't you feel the least bit embarrassed writing nonsense like at a time like this?
If the author is so good with the Russian language, please watch this interview that is now viral in the Russian space: https://youtu.be/sP5agpp4tJ4
It really represents the common Russian. Compare it with your representation. Maybe you can write new article about it?
WWII started with two allies invading Poland - Germany and USSR.
One of the allies was defeated. The other one won and occupied numerous countries.
It's time to finish with what is 80 years overdue - defeat the fascist Russia.